HOW CAMBODIA WILL PAY

HOW CAMBODIA WILL PAY

18 July 2012
Op-Ed by Ung Bun Ang

The decision of the chair in the 2012 ASEAN meeting shows Hun Sen policies throw Cambodia into a position of having to choose between his two heavy hitters who are in disputes over the South China Sea territorial claims. On one corner, there is China – a powerful benefactor who dishes out loans and grants to him. On the other corner stands Vietnam – Hun Sen’s saviour who earns his eternal gratitude for his power base.

Of course, it would be nice to befriend with everybody. But there is a kind of friendship that can cost small potatoes like Cambodia dearly in the long run. Hun Sen has puts Cambodia into a benefactor-beneficiary relationship with the two major powers who are in the conflict that has no easy way out.

The decision not to issue any customary communiqué after the 2012 ASEAN meeting – whether it is influenced by China or not – pleases China who prefers to keep ASEAN out of the South China Sea disputes that directly involves four ASEAN members. China must be satisfied that all the monies it dishes out all these years to Hun Sen leadership have come to fruition, especially when it counts most.

At the receiving end, it is very doubtful if Hun Sen has an option of not pleasing China. He needs the Chinese monies that he claims to have no string attached to keep his Personal Interest Groups flourish so that his support base can be strengthened. He knows what it takes, and what he must do, to keep the Chinese monies rolling in under the facade of development.

On the other hand, Vietnam who wants a communiqué to include an ASEAN position on the territorial claims must be upset, unless it has no real desire to pursue its claims against China. And it knows how to flex its muscle to protect its national interest. It is no coincidence that Laos has just announced a suspension of its $3.5 billion Xayaburi hydropower dam that Vietnam opposes for adversely impacting its national interest. It is illogical for Vietnam that has also installed and controlled the Laos government to allow its vassal state to do anything that could damage its interest.

Hun Sen must know he upsets Vietnam at the ASEAN meeting. Thus, the question is what he can now do, or offer, to appease an angry benefactor whom he owes an eternal gratitude, or he would put his power base at risk. Unless the death of Hoc Lundi – who was generally known as a Vietnam’s protégé – had been accidental, this ASEAN choice would be the second time that angers Vietnam. It is not yet possible to determine what would be the actual compensation offered to make up for Hoc Lundi’s death, besides influx of migrants and the villages exchange at the border. This time around would have to be something more substantial to keep Vietnam’s wrath in check.

And Cambodia, in one way or another, must pay up to keep Hun Sen off the Vietnam’s hook.

Ung Bun Ang